A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
