Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
